Macro Economic Indicators - Actual and Projected

Period Ending FY08A FY09A FY10A FY11E FY12E  


Economic growth saving and invest:
Real GDP growth % 4.10% 2.00% 2.80% 1.60% 4.30%  
Agriculture growth % 1.10% 4.70% 2.90% -1.00% 5.00%  
LSM growth % 4.80% -3.30% 1.80% -1.00% 3.30%  
Services growth % 6.60% 3.60% 3.40% 3.00% 4.00%  
GDP per capita US$ 1,038 1,018 1,095 1,110 1,175  
Investment as % of GDP 21.60% 20.00% 16.60% 16.00% 17.00%  
Saving as a % of GDP 13.90% 14.80% 13.80% 14.10% 14.50%  
Balance of Payment (USD bn)
Exports 19.2 17.8 19.3 21.5 21  
Imports 39.9 34.8 34.7 39.7 39.6  
Trade account balance -20.7 -17 -15.3 -18.3 -18.6  
Remittances 6.5 7.8 8.9 10.6 11.9  
Current account balance -14 -8.8 -3.5 -3.7 -5.3  
Foreign Direct Investment 5.45 3.72 2.2 1.7 2  
SBP Fx reserves 8.6 9.5 13.1 12.5 13.9  
Prices
CPI (%) 12.00% 20.80% 11.70% 15.00% 11.50%  
Monetary aggregate 
Money Supply (M2) growth % 14.00% 9.60% 12.50% 14.50% 13.00%  
Exchange rate PkR/USD 63.5 81.5 85 88.5 93  
6m T-bill WAY% 11.50% 12.80% 12.20% 13.70% 13.20%  
Public Finance 
Tax Revenues in (PkR bn) 1,051 1,314 1,472 1,680 1,950  
Development Expenditure (PkR bn) 424 486 510 563 663  
Budget deficit as % of GDP 7.00% 5.20% 6.30% 6.00% 5.00%  
Public debt 
Pakistan External Debt (USD bn) 44.5 50.8 55.2 57 58.3  
Domestic Debt (PkR bn) 3,266 3,861 4,634 5,484 5,979  
Debt Servicing as % of GDP na na na na na  
Pakistan External Debt as % of GDP 28% 29% 32% 30% 31%  
Pakistan Domestic debt as % of GDP 32% 29% 30% 33% 32%  
Pakistan total debt as % of GDP 59% 59% 62% 63% 63%  
Misc
Population (mln) 161 164 167 170 173  
 
Source: SBP, FBS and KASB Estimates
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